What would SEO need to deliver to pay for itself?
An extra customer can be valuable. Whether that customer covers your SEO investment depends on the contribution they bring and what the programme costs.
Use this worksheet to calculate a break-even threshold. It won't predict rankings, leads or sales.
Your break-even threshold
Exact thresholds can include fractional wins. The operational figure rounds up to whole customers and whole enquiries. A close rate describes an average, so the enquiry count is uncertain. Figures are displayed to two decimal places where needed.
Put in your own figures
Choose the period you're assessing, then enter:
- Agency fees for that period.
- Agreed additional costs, including implementation where separate.
- Internal time cost, if you want it included.
- Revenue per additional won customer or project.
- Contribution margin as a percentage of that revenue.
- The percentage of qualified enquiries that become customers.
Contribution means revenue left after the costs of supplying that work. Ask whoever manages your accounts which costs to include. Keep currency, tax treatment and customer-value periods consistent.
If you don't know the revenue, contribution margin or close rate, leave it blank. A missing number isn't zero.
Read the result
Contribution per win = revenue per win × contribution margin.
Break-even wins = total investment ÷ contribution per additional win.
Qualified enquiries required = break-even wins ÷ qualified-enquiry close rate.
Use percentages as decimals in the calculations. The exact result shows the economic threshold, including fractional wins. The whole-customer result rounds wins up. A separate operational enquiry figure uses those whole wins and your close rate, rounded up to a whole enquiry. A close rate describes an average, so either enquiry figure remains uncertain.
The result answers: “What would need to happen under these assumptions?” It doesn't answer: “What will SEO deliver?”
A worked example
These are invented figures, not an SEO Yolo quote or forecast. If total investment is £32,400 and each additional project brings £20,000 revenue at a 30% contribution margin, contribution per project is £6,000. Break-even is 5.4 projects, so you need 6 whole projects to cover the cost.
At a 20% qualified-enquiry close rate, the exact threshold is 27 enquiries. Using 6 whole projects gives 30 enquiries at that average rate. Neither figure guarantees how many sales you'll win.
Check the assumptions before approving spend
Use a close rate for qualified enquiries from a comparable source and period. Your overall close rate may include repeat customers or referrals that behave differently.
For repeat business, choose a customer-value period and use revenue and delivery costs from that same period. Lifetime contribution doesn't show when cash will arrive.
Try figures your finance or sales team considers plausible. A lower contribution or close rate means more enquiries are needed. Keep each scenario labelled so nobody mistakes it for a forecast.
Count additional wins relevant to the investment. Existing customers, referrals and paid campaigns may also influence sales, so attributing every organic enquiry to new SEO work can overstate its contribution.
You may still decide the investment is worthwhile before enough sales have matured to assess it fully. Record what evidence you'll use at that review and what remains uncertain.
Next: check your readiness or prepare your business case.
Need to discuss the plan? Talk to Josh about your SEO investment.